Hayes: the probability of seeing a new ATH Bitcoin “INCREASES”

By Davide Grammatica

According to Arthur Hayes, the chances of Bitcoin reaching a new ATH of around $110k are greater than a new drop to $76k

Hayes' outlook for BTC

Some macroeconomic factors (primarily easing inflation and increased global liquidity) would play in favor of Bitcoin in the medium term.

This is according to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and a point of reference for the crypto community, who has once again spoken out on social media, emphasizing that the chances of seeing a new ATH for BTC around $110k are greater than a new drop towards $76k.

BTC’s performance over the past two weeks seems to be fueling new optimism among investors, and the weekly close above $86k leaves room for further upside after a difficult Q1 2025.

“I bet BTC will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k,” Hayes wrote. “The Fed is changing its policy on Quantitative Tightening (QT), and tariffs would not be critical due to ‘transitory inflation’.”

And if BTC really does manage to reach $110k, according to Hayes, then “we shouldn’t look back until it reaches $250k”.

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k.

Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause “transitory inflation”. JAYPOW told me so.

I’ll expound on that in my next essay, that’s the TLDR for your TikTok peanut brain.

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 24, 2025

New help from the Fed

The transition from a policy of quantitative tightening (QT) to one of quantitative easing (QE) would be fundamental, as the Fed would become complicit in a new injection of capital through the purchase of bonds to lower interest rates.

The QT phase, i.e. the reduction of the balance sheet by selling bonds, as already seen last week, would not yet be interrupted for other analysts, but there is a change of approach in the air.

A new phase of QE would be well appreciated by investors, also in light of past events. In 2020, for example, this dynamic caused an increase in the price of BTC of over 1,000%.

Hayes has always treated the crypto community well with his bullish forecasts, but as reported in recent months, he too had alerted his followers to a possible sharp correction in BTC at the beginning of 2025. In this new phase, however, the conditions for a new rise are being created.