No ATH Ethereum in 2025: Standard Chartered's word

By Daniele Corno

Standard Chartered makes a clean break from its Ethereum price forecasts for 2025: $10k is a mirage, they're aiming for $4k

Clean break from Ethereum expectations

The suffering for Ethereum is not about to end and analysts are drastically reducing their price targets. Specifically, we are talking about the British bank Standard Chartered, which has recently revised its forecasting models.

The targets for Bitcoin remain stable, with eyes set on $200,000 by the end of 2025 but, for Ethereum, everything changes! Whereas previously the target was set at $10,000 by the end of 2025, the new target has been reduced by -60%.

No new ATH for Ethereum in 2025. The new target to aim for is $4,000, a value that the price hasn’t seen since December 17th, the day before the latest rate cut by the FED.

Is it all the fault of Layer 2s?

According to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research, the tool that guarantees scalability to Ethereum is the same one that negatively affects the price of ETH.

“The layer 2s, and in particular Base by Coinbase, extract super profits from the Ethereum ecosystem.”

According to the estimates reported, BASE alone would have removed almost $50 billion in market cap from the second largest crypto on the market.

In the medium term, in fact, the value of the commissions that bypass the main Mainnet would be continuously increasing, subtracting fundamental commissions that have a negative impact on the price action of ETH.

The long-term objective is clear: to improve scalability and make network commissions increasingly efficient. However, it is important to also take into account the effects on price in the medium term, which can affect to a large extent the use and adoption of the network, in a period where competition is at its highest.

3 factors for the price recovery

Introdurre tasse sui profitti generati dai Layer 2, con l’obiettivo di minimizzare il più possibile le commissioni generate che eludono la Mainnet e di conseguenza, i validatori.
Pectra: Maggior efficienza nella scalabilità e sulle commissioni di rete. Un aggiornamento in testnet che potrebbe vedere la luce a breve in mainnet.
Forte sviluppo dei 3 settori dominanti sulla mainnet di Ethereum quali: Stablecoin, DeFi e RWA. Tre settori attualmente vedono il loro maggior sviluppo in termini di crescita e di TVL proprio sulla maggiore blockchain per Smart Contract.

Nonostante Standard Chartered resti comunque positiva nello sviluppo della price action per Ethereum negli anni successivi, ciò che si estrae dalle loro previsioni è una forte difficoltà nel mantenere il passo con Bitcoin.

La banca infatti, stima un rapporto ETH/BTC in decrescita nei prossimi 5 anni. Nel 2029 infatti, l’obiettivo posto per Bitcoin è di $500.000 mentre, per Ethereum, l’ultimo target price di questo decennio è di $7.500.