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Trump vs. Harris: for Polymarket it is a TIE
By Davide Grammatica
The presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held last night reshuffled Polymarket's odds
The debate between Trump and Harris
The predictions of Polymarket, for months a benchmark for measuring the sentiment of the U.S. electorate and, specifically, that of the crypto community, have undergone noticeable changes following the latest debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Last night’s presidential debate between the two candidates attracted worldwide attention, and as much as the crypto issue has never been addressed, the cryptocurrency industry has also been affected by the “rebalancing” in the polls.
For Polymarket we are now in a situation of substantial parity. Both odds-that is, the two candidates’ chance of winning-are at 49 percent, with Harris up from 46 percent on Monday night and Trump down from 52 percent in recent days.
Issues such as the economy, war in Gaza and abortion rights have been prioritized, but some indications with respect to the crypto sector can still be analyzed. This, starting with Polymarket itself, which may suggest a change in the community’s approach to the Democratic candidate. In the past, only Trump has come out openly in favor of the crypto industry, but the Dem side also seems (albeit belatedly) to have changed its view on the sector, and this seems to have been felt by the community.
Bitcoin's reaction
Those expecting a shakeup in Bitcoin’s price will certainly have been disappointed. BTC rose above $58k right around the time of the debate, only to fall below $57k in the following hours. In fact, this shows how Bitcoin is behaving as an “unbiased observer,” in line with any other risky asset and thus moving in step with equities.
The determinants seem to be others. More influential, certainly, are issues such as inflation, Fed decisions on interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.
